With the start of the 2016 NFL season, Im excited to contribute this weekly column for the second straight year. During the 2015 regular season, my weekly picks produced a 25-19 against the spread record (56.82 percent), and heres to providing more winning picks and betting systems.If youre unfamiliar with this column, we use contrarian strategies to find value in the betting marketplace. Whenever the public zigs, we zag. As one of the core philosophies at Sports Insights, it has yielded consistently profitable results.To understand why the contrarian approach works, its important to first understand the inner workings of a sportsbook. The point spread isnt the predicted margin of victory, nor are oddsmakers attempting to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side, thereby mitigating any risk. The truth here is that books shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception -- allowing their most-respected clients to shape the line.Almost all bettors can be sorted into one of two categories: sharps and squares. Sharps are typically wise guys or betting syndicates who spread large bets across multiple sportsbooks. Sharps are widely respected -- theyre a smaller group that moves lines across the sports betting marketplace.A majority of bettors can be categorized as squares. These casual weekend warriors place wagers based on gut-feelings and instinct, rather than research and analysis. Squares love winning teams and high-scoring games, and therefore they have a tendency to pound favorites and overs and point totals. This has historically created a slight edge in betting on underdogs and unders.Every week in this column Ill explain how readers can capitalize on squares overreacting to blowouts, prolonged streaks or major injuries. Well break down profitable betting trends, identify sharp money indicators, examine public betting behavior and share insights from several prominent oddsmakers.In the first system of the new season, I wanted to take advantage of artificially skewed lines created LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Good things result from rebounds, and No. 8 Louisville succeeded against Western Kentucky by attacking the boards.Asia Durr scored 16 points, including two key 3-pointers 80 seconds apart in the fourth quarter, and Louisville outrebounded Western Kentucky 15-5 down the stretch for a 68-61 victory on Sunday.Louisville (8-2) erased a 38-32 halftime deficit with 10 straight points before Jaycee Coe rallied WKU (5-4) with three consecutive 3s, beginning a back-and-forth stretch that continued into the final quarter. The Cardinals 14-7 run helped them go ahead for good at 60-59 on Mariya Moores layup with 4:12 left, and Durr added a 3 with 3:33 to go.Offensive rebounds set up both baskets and symbolized Louisvilles fierce approach that also held WKU to 29 percent shooting in the final quarter.We just had to get a stop on defense and thats where it all started, said forward Myisha Hines-Allen, who also had 16 points with 11 rebounds, including an offensive board resulting in Durrs insurance 3.When we came out strong in the third quarter and were able to hold them, I dont know how many points we gained. Its just always defense, and then offense.Cortnee Walton added a layup and Briahanna Jackson and Hines-Allen combined for three free throws in the final minutes to seal the win in the intrastate matchup. Louisville avenged last seasons two-point loss in Bowling Green and has won seven of the last nine in the series.I was really proud how we started the fourth quarter defensively because we missed the first two shots, coach Jeff Walz said. But then we had stops too because all of a sudden if it (the deficit) goes from eight to 12, youve got big-time problems. So we actually defended, which was important.Ivy Brown scored 12 points and Tashia Brown had 11 for the Lady Toppers, who had won two in a row.THE BIG PICTUREWestern Kentucky: The Lady Toppers went 9 for 22 fromm 3-point range and led several times, but were dominated 41-25 on the boards and had several scoreless stretches that allowed Louisville to rally.dddddddddddd WKU shot 41 percent.Of her teams long-range shooting, coach Michelle Clark-Heard said, That is what we do, shoot the 3. When you are an undersized team and they are bigger than us, and most teams will be bigger than us, then its what we have to do.Kentucky transfer Kyvin Goodin-Rogers had eight points including two 3s and four rebounds in her WKU debut.Louisville: Freshman Sydney Zambrotta made 5 of 6 3-point attempts for 15 points while playing a season-high 16 minutes, providing a big boost. The Cardinals shot 46 percent from the field and 59 percent (10 of 17) from long range.I knew when I got in the game that I had to step up for my team, Zambrotta said, and Im happy we got the win.Louisvilles control inside made the difference late as it outscored WKU 28-18 in the paint.JUST A SUGGESTIONLouisvilles free throw struggles continued as it made just 4 of 9 attempts. Walz noted the Cardinals 3-point shooting and joked at changing the rule to allow his team to shoot freebies from long range.Were going to stand far back and see if the official will allow me to throw it from the bench, he said. (Just) shoot a 3 in stride because we do it better than we shoot free throws.POLL IMPLICATIONSLouisville should remain in the top 10 after beating its second in-state foe in a week. The Cardinals beat No. 15 Kentucky last Sunday.UP NEXTWestern Kentucky: Begins a five-game homestand on Thursday against Lipscomb.Louisville: Faces visiting South Dakota State for the first time on Wednesday night. The Jackrabbits return five starters from a 27-7 squad.---More AP College Basketball: www.collegebasketball.ap.org Cheap NFL JerseysCheap NFL Jerseys ChinaCheap Jerseys From ChinaCheap NFL Jerseys AuthenticWholesale Jerseys ChinaCheap NFL Jerseys ChinaNFL Cheap Jerseys ' ' '
