The Toronto Maple Leafs made the playoffs for the first time since 2004 and took
the heavily-favoured Boston Bruins to the seventh game, yet the season ended
with disappointment when the Leafs surrendered a three-goal third-period lead.
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. Off-Season Game Plan looks at a Leafs team that has much work to do if they
are going to continue along the playoff road. As always there will be personnel
decisions to address, but the first order of business for the Maple Leafs is
understanding that they overachieved last season. That is, their place in the
standings was not supported by sustainable underlying statistics, so they cant
rest on their playoff laurels thinking that they are simply a playoff team going
forward. Maple Leafs GM Dave Nonis recognizes that the Leafs have work to do.
"We took some significant steps," he told the Toronto Star after the Leafs were
eliminated from the playoffs. "Theres room for improvement. We need to get
better. We need to add more pieces. Weve taken some significant steps. But were
not there. Were not playing tonight." Tied with Edmonton for the leagues worst
shot differential, with terrible possession metrics, the Maple Leafs had to rely
on exceptional percentages (first in shooting percentage, ninth in save
percentage) to earn a playoff berth. It worked, but maintaining those
exceptional percentages is extremely difficult. Looking ahead, to build a team
that has long-term sustainable success, the Maple Leafs have to improve their
puck possession and that means they can improve at both ends of the rink,
finding forwards that control play as well as defencemen that can reduce the
number of chances against. These objectives arent easily achieved in a year with
a relatively thin free agent market and with a decreasing salary cap. The Leafs
have the financial might to use compliance buyouts to give them the most
advantageous position possible, and the Leafs are likely going to need to be
aggressive in order to make the moves necessary to remain a playoff contender.
This isnt meant to rain on the Leafs playoff parade, merely to serve as fair
warning that the work is just beginning. The TSN.ca Rating is an efficiency
rating based on per-game statistics including goals and assists -- weighted for
strength (ie. power play, even, shorthanded) -- plus-minus, hits, blocked shots,
giveaways, takeaways, penalty differential and faceoffs. (Stats are listed in
this format: G-A-PTS, +/-, PIM, GP). Generally, a replacement-level player is
around a 60, a top six forward and top four defenceman will be 70-plus, stars
will be over 80 and MVP candidates could go over 90. Sidney Crosby finished at
the top of the 2013 regular season ratings with a 93.65. Salary cap information
all comes from the indispensable www.capgeek.com. GM/COACH Dave Nonis/Randy
Carlyle Returning Forwards Player Rating GP G A PTS +/- Cap Hit Joffrey Lupul
85.38 16 11 7 18 +8 $5.25M Phil Kessel 79.16 48 20 32 52 -3 $5.4M
James van Riemsdyk 72.76 48 18 14 32 -7 $4.25M Matt Frattin 67.55 25 7 6 13 +6
$925K Nikolai Kulemin 64.99 48 7 16 23 -5 $2.8M Jay McClement 61.78 48 8 9 17 0
$1.5M Mikhail Grabovski 59.56 48 9 7 16 -10 $5.5M Colton Orr 53.39 44 1 3 4 +4
$925K Free Agent Forwards Player Rating GP G A PTS +/- Class 12-13 Cap Hit
Nazem Kadri 76.83 48 18 26 44 +15 RFA $1.72M Tyler Bozak 67.32 46 12 16 28 -1
UFA $1.5M Clarke MacArthur 65.41 40 8 12 20 +3 UFA $3.25M Leo Komarov 58.86 42 4
5 9 -1 RFA $1.2M Frazer McLaren 54.71 36 3 2 5 0 RFA $633K Maple Leafs Forwards
Usage Chart from somekindofninja.com Injuries limited Joffrey Lupul to just 16
games last season and, while his production was terrific in that small sample,
its worth noting that he generated more shots per game in each of the previous
two seasons. It just so happened that, in the few games that he did play in
2013, Lupul scored on a preposterous 26.2% of his shots. His career average is
11.5%, so its possible that Lupul isnt really a 56-goal scorer (pro-rating his
11 goals in 16 games over an 82-game season), but credit where its due: he has
85 points in 82 games over the last two seasons. Only six others (Sidney Crosby,
Evgeni Malkin, Steven Stamkos, Claude Giroux, Martin St. Louis and Jason Spezza)
have more than Lupuls 1.04 points per game in that span. The real game-breaking
scorer for the Leafs, however, is Phil Kessel, who plays well with Lupul when
they are on the same line, but has accumulated 110 even-strength goals over the
last five seasons, ranking fifth in the league in that time, behind only
Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, Rick Nash and Ilya Kovalchuk. On top of that,
Kessels first-round performance against the Bruins (four goals, six points,
plus-3 in seven games) helped alleviate any concerns that his game wouldnt
translate in a physical playoff series. James van Riemsdyk was a nice addition
to the Leafs lineup, showing the soft hands that helped him get drafted second
overall in 2007. In Toronto, van Riemsdyk was given more responsibility, playing
a career-high 19:12 per game, and he delivered the best goal and point-scoring
rates of his career. In 82 career games, Matt Frattin has tallied 15 goals and
28 points, while playing 13:13 per game; relatively modest totals, but enough to
indicate that hes worthy of a regular spot on the roster. At his best, Frattin
uses his speed to forecheck, create turnovers and generate offence. Hes also
sturdy enough to play a physical game, which makes him a fine fit for the third
line. His 30-goal season in 2010-2011 may forever ruin expectations, since hes
come nowhere close since, but Nikolai Kulemin is a reliable two-way winger who
was thrust into a very difficult role last season, playing the toughest matchups
and starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone with less than ideal
results. However, as a top nine forward with some offensive upside, Kulemin is
an asset, if not quite what the Leafs might have thought they had a couple of
seasons ago. Veteran checking centre Jay McClement had a solid first season in
Toronto, scoring at a career-best (0.17 gpg) pace, but he does the heaviest
lifting when it comes to matchups and zone starts. He has a niche and thats
defensive play and penalty-killing. Coming into 2013, Mikhail Grabovski had
back-to-back seasons with at least 20 goals and 50 points, but with Nazem Kadri
emerging as a scorer, Grabovski was pressed into a defensive role that didnt
necessarily mesh with skills that he had shown previously. With Tyler Bozak
approaching free agency, the Leafs may be less inclined to shed Grabovskis
contract through a compliance buyout, but either that or a trade would have to
be a consideration if hes still third on the centre depth chart because a
$5.5-million cap hit is very pricey for a bottom six role. It should be noted
that, on the heels of such a down season, Grabovski still ranked third among
Maple Leafs forwards in ice time in the first round of the playoffs against
Boston. He somehow managed to finish minus-10 in seven games, despite ranking
among the Leafs best in puck possession for the series. After several years of
up and down and not quite ready, Nazem Kadri was given a chance to play last
season and made the most of it, scoring nearly a point per game despite modest
ice time. Among players with at least 40 points last season, Kadri easily has
the lowest ice time at 16:03 per game; he was the only one under 17 minutes per
game. Now, for as terrific as Kadris 2013 season was, its imperative to note
that hes ripe for regression next season. For one thing, he scored on 16.8% of
his shots and thats awfully difficult to repeat. Since 2000-2001, there are 13
players to shoot 16.0% with at least 200 shots on goal and few, if any, profile
to be a similar player to Kadri; its more of a crease-crashing crowd with a few
sharpshooters mixed in. Aside from that, though related, is that the rest of
those on the ice with Kadri scored at unnaturally high rates (14.4% at 5-on-5,
when league average hovers around 8.0% and a decent playmaker named
Sidney Crosby has exceeded 14.0% once in in the last six seasons). None of this
guarantees that Kadris production will decline next season, as an increase in
ice time or better linemates could certainly stem the regression tide somewhat,
but the point is that its extremely unlikely that he can duplicate his rate of
production without either more ice time, more shots on goal or, preferably,
both. It appears that Leo Komarov is headed back to the KHL, which would be a
notable loss even though he didnt score much. He plays an in-your-face game and
was solid in possession terms relative to his teammates. Picked up on waivers,
Frazer McLaren made the most of his opportunity with the Maple Leafs, fighting a
dozen times, and playing most nights. He has 11 points and 187 penalty minutes
in 75 career games, playing a little over five minutes per game, so there is no
secret to McLarens game and he gives the Leafs a double-heavyweight tandem with
Colton Orr, for whatever that might be worth. Orr just inked a two-year contract
extension, with the Leafs talking about how much he improved his skating, and
while that may be true, his impact on the game still remains in the heavyweight
battles he undertakes. If the Maple Leafs decide to invest in Tyler Bozak as an
unrestricted free agent, that will come at the expense of potentially adding
somewhere else. Some free agents that might appeal to Torontos brass, offering
some offensive ability and toughness, include David Clarkson, Ryane Clowe or
Nathan Horton. For fun, they could always take a trip on the Jaromir Jagr
twilight tour but, really, a forward that can contribute in the top six is a
fair objective. At the same time, adding insurance down the middle (Matt Cullen,
Stephen Weiss) would be necessary if Bozak departs. Returning Defence Player
Rating GP G A PTS +/- Cap Hit Dion Phaneuf 73.68 48 9 19 28 -4 $6.5M
Jake Gardiner 73.46 12 0 4 4 0 $1.117M John-Michael Liles 68.31 32 2 9 11 -1
$3.875M Mike Komisarek 62.61 4 0 0 0 +2 $4.5M Free Agent Defence Player Rating
GP G A PTS +/- Class 12-13 Cap Hit Cody Franson 77.34 45 4 25 29 +4 RFA $1.2M
Carl Gunnarsson 68.95 37 1 14 15 +5 RFA $1.325M Mark Fraser 66.65 45 0 8 8 +18
RFA $600K Ryan OByrne 63.08 42 2 4 6 -4 UFA $1.8M Mike Kostka 62.85 35 0 8 8 -7
UFA $600K Maple Leafs Defence Usage Chart from somekindofninja.com Often
maligned for his errors, Dion Phaneuf isnt nearly as bad as his critics might
want to believe. He makes his mistakes, still getting caught out of position for
a big hit, but he ranks 11th among defencemen in points (72) and tied for fourth
in goals (21) over the last two seasons, so there are positives that cant be
overlooked. Additionally, Phaneuf was charged with taking on the oppositions
best on a nightly basis and, for a Leafs team that had terrible possession
numbers, that meant a lot of heavy lifting. Its entirely reasonable to think
that there might be other defencemen who could handle the shutdown role more
effectively, but its not fair to malign Phaneuf for not being the ideal shutdown
defenceman when hes one of the leagues better offensive contributors from the
blueline because the list of defencemen who excel at both is very small. Its
difficult to fathom just how the Maple Leafs handled Jake Gardiner last season.
He was quite possibly their second best defenceman as a rookie in 2011-2012,
playing 75 NHL games, and was a lock to make the team last season before he
suffered a concussion while playing in the AHL. Gardiner returned to action and
struggled in his first two NHL games (after being sidelined for six weeks) and
was demoted to the AHL, where he remained for much of the year, allowing some to
talk about him as though he was still a prospect on the way up and not a bona
fide NHL defenceman. Then, after Gardiner rolled through the AHL, with 31 points
and a plus-1 rating in 43 games, he was called up and despite putting up the
best possession numbers on the team, was relegated to the press box late in the
year, only to be freed in the second game of the playoffs at which point he
showed he was more than ready to handle NHL competition. None of this is meant
to suggest that Gardiner doesnt have flaws -- he often makes mistakes, either
turnovers or positioning, that he can often outskate because he is such a
tremendous skater. The trouble arises when he doesnt have the time to catch-up,
so improved decision-making will make Gardiner a better player, but hes easily
worthy of top-four minutes now, especially for a team of this calibre. A mobile
defenceman who fell out of favour and sat in the press box for about a month,
John-Michael Liles is more than capable of handling a regular role on the
blueline. Hes not physical, never has been, so if thats a specific need, then he
wont be the one to fill it, but Liles might be of interest to another team that
could use his puck skills in a more advantageous manner. Mike Komisarek is due
for a fresh start somewhere else and, with the possibility of a compliance
buyout this summer, perhaps hell have that chance. He has undeniably struggled
in Toronto, but thats only been exacerbated by his salary, so its probably best
for all if he gets a chance to play again, without the financial obligation
hanging over his head. 25-year-old Cody Franson was finally given a real
opportunity to play last season and he performed well, tying his career-high
with 29 points, despite playing 45 games in a shortened season. He doesnt use
his 6-foot-5 frame to his advantage as much as he could, but Franson is smart
with the puck and has a heavy shot from the point. Franson also played more as
the season progressed, increasing each month, from 13:01 per game in January to
22:49 per game in the playoffs against Boston, so hes due for a sizeable raise
as a restricted free agent. 2013 wasnt the best season for Carl Gunnarsson,
though he was playing through a hip problem that affected him for much of the
season. Hes a steady, calming influence, which is a nice counter-balance to his
frequent partner, Phaneuf, who has higher highs and lower lows. After spending
most of 2011-2012 in the American Hockey League, Mark Fraser returned to the NHL
last season, playing 45 of 48 games and a career-high 16:57 per game. Frasers
game is limited, but he is a big, tough defensive-minded blueliner. As long as
hes not asked to do too much, he can be a useful part of the defensive unit.
While the Leafs have quite a few young puck-moving defencemen in the pipeline,
they could use a veteran with a defensive focus. Free agents like
Douglas Murray, Rob Scuderi, Toni Lydman or even ex-Leaf Ian White could help
steady the group. Returning Goaltenders Player Rating GP W L OTL GAA SV% Cap Hit
James Reimer 77.13 33 19 8 5 2.46 .924 $1.8M Ben Scrivens 70.62 20 7 9 0 2.69
.915 $613K Coming into the 2013 season, goaltending was a massive question mark
for the Leafs, with James Reimer coming off a 2011-2012 season in which he
posted a .900 save percentage. To be fair, that was a season during which he
missed a bunch of time with a concussion, so it would be understandable if his
game wasnt at 100%, even when he did come back, but that didnt guarantee that he
would automatically be in peak form for 2013. Turns out that, yes, Reimer was
back on top of his game last season, with his .924 save percentage ranking
eighth among qualified goaltenders. That didnt stop the Maple Leafs from looking
for alternatives (Miikka Kiprusoff?!?!?) at the trade deadline but, given the
Leafs shot deficits all season long, they could just thank Reimer for playing at
such a level that they could still make the playoffs because average goaltending
wouldnt have been nearly enough. Ben Scrivens saw quite a bit of action early in
the season, particularly in February (when he had a 2.25 GAA and .932 SV% in 10
GP), before Reimer wrested control of the starting job. Now, Scrivens is a
quality backup at a bargain price, which is an enviable situation for the team.
Top Prospects Player Pos. Team/League Stats Morgan Rielly D Moose Jaw (WHL)
12-42-54, -8, 60 GP Matt Finn D Guelph (OHL) 11-20-31, +2, 41 GP Joe Colborne C
Toronto (AHL) 14-28-42, +13, 65 GP Stuart Percy D Mississauga (OHL) 13-32-45,
-8, 68 GP Josh Leivo LW Kitchener (OHL) 29-44-73, +20, 63 GP Jesse Blacker D
Toronto (AHL) 4-7-11, -4, 61 GP Tyler Biggs RW Oshawa (OHL) 26-27-53, +1, 60 GP
Greg McKegg C Toronto (AHL) 8-15-23, +4, 61 GP Brad Ross LW Toronto (AHL)
8-3-11, +4, 40 GP Tony Cameranesi C Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA) 14-20-34, +1, 38 GP
A brilliant puck-rushing defenceman, Morgan Rielly was the fifth pick in last
summers draft and he could challenge for a spot as soon as next season, but may
be better served with another year of development before he tackles the pro
game. After getting Rielly in Round One last year, the Leafs picked up another
puck-moving defenceman, Matt Finn, in the second round. Finn will need time to
round out his game, like most young defencemen, but hes quality asset to have in
the organization. A first-round pick of the Bruins in 2008, Joe Colborne hasnt
had a smooth developmental path, and hes not likely to be a big scorer, but he
hasnt looked out of place in 18 call-up games over the past three seasons,
including two games against the Bruins in the playoffs. Certainly improving
their defence has been a priority for the Leafs, using last years first two
picks on Rielly and Finn, a year after grabbing Stuart Percy with their second
first-round pick in the 2011 draft. Hes a smart puck-mover who got into four
games with the Marlies (1 G, 2 A, minus-1) late in the season. A winger with
decent size and some offensive upside, Josh Leivo was a third-round pick in 2011
and should have at least a season or two in the AHL to continue improving his
game before hes ready for his shot in the NHL. A second-round pick in 2009,
Jesse Blacker has played a couple of AHL seasons and hasnt shown the offensive
promise that was there in junior, but that doesnt preclude him from being an
NHL-calibre defenceman altogether; it merely lowers the ceiling on what he might
contribute. Drafted in the first round in 2011, Tyler Biggs is a big winger who,
at the most optimistic projection, could be a power forward as a pro; otherwise,
he should have the physical game to at least fit into a bottom six role at some
point. A scoring forward who took some time to adjust to pro hockey, Greg McKegg
finished his season better than he started. If he can continue that development
next season, the 21-year-old could put himself in position for a call-up.
Brad Ross didnt stir the pot in his first pro season the same way he did in
junior, but given some time, he has a chance to agitate and chip in some
offensively. Taken in the fifth round in 2011, Tony Cameranesi may not have been
the most highly-touted prospect at that time but, after 34 points in 38 WCHA
games as a freshman, the speedster is worth tracking. A couple other prospects
that have been toiling in the AHL for a few seasons, Carter Ashton and
Jerry DAmigo, could be closer to call-ups, but there is some sense that their
progress has stagnated. DRAFT 21st - Anthony Mantha, Kerby Rychel, Nicolas Petan
FREE AGENCY According to www.capgeek.com, the Maple Leafs have approximately
$46.0M committed to the 2013-2014 salary cap for 13 players. Check out my
possible Maple Leafs lineup for next season on Cap Geek here. Needs: One top six
forward, one top nine forward, depth forwards, one top four defenceman. What I
said the Maple Leafs needed last year: First-line centre, starting goaltender.
They added: Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, Jay McClement, Leo Komarov,
Mike Kostka, Mark Fraser. TRADE MARKET Nikolai Kulemin, John-Michael Liles,
Carl Gunnarsson. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and
followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out
TSN Fantasy on Facebook.
Adidas Zx 850 Noir .com) - The Edmonton
Oilers and Vancouver Canucks both take aim at their first wins of the season on
Saturday, as the Canucks open their home slate at Rogers Arena.
Adidas Neo Pas Cher . Toronto has dropped
games to Indiana and Miami since a five-game winning streak and closed out a
three-game road trip at 1-2.
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. Mats Zuccarello and Derek Stepan scored shootout goals, and backup goalie
Cam Talbot earned his second win in two nights as the Rangers shook off a late
tying tally and beat the Maple Leafs 2-1 Monday night. Weve finally made it to
the weekend of the trade deadline, where every hug sets Twitter buzzing with a
trade rumor. Keep that in mind with David Ortiz?--?its just what he does. With
the weather really heating up, teams schedule fewer day games on Saturday, so
were looking at a truncated, four-game afternoon slate. The pitching on the
evening docket lacks an ace, but for some, that makes DFS more fun, if not
challenging. We accept that challenge, so to help you make sense of a tricky
Saturday, here are the Daily Notes.PitchingEliteRegression is a funny thing. To
be clear, this is regression in the statistical sense where something out of the
players control regresses to the mean. Its unfortunate regression has morphed
into meaning play worse since that clouds the message when regression is
discussed in the practical sense.Jake Arrietas 2015 Cy Young campaign was buoyed
by an eight percent home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB), well below the league
average. Its generally accepted that all hurlers will cluster around an 11
percent mark. If youre below, you likely incurred some good luck, tempered by
the park factor of your home park.This season, through June 22, Arrieta allowed
just three homers on a five percent HR/FB. Since then, he has surrendered five
long balls on the heels of a 19 percent HR/FB clip, raising his seasonal level
to 9 percent HR/FB. Theres nothing wrong with Arrieta; hes simply the victim of
some regression with respect to home run rate.Well, Arrietas walk rate is up
from last season, but if his 2016 homers allowed were more evenly distributed
over the past four months, no one would be concerned. The bottom line is if
youre in a seasonal league with Arrieta as your ace, theres nothing to worry
about. This doesnt guarantee a stellar stretch run, only that theres nothing in
the numbers to lose sleep over.On Saturday, Arrieta is the clear top DFS option
on a short slate, despite facing a Seattle Mariners squad that handles righties
effectively. It just seemed more important to spend a little time discussing the
Cubs righty in a big-picture sense, based on some of the concerns expressed by
his owners in traditional leagues.SolidLeading off the solid tier may be a
surprise, but it shouldnt be if you check the numbers and consider the matchup.
Anthony DeSclafani may not have a dominant strikeout rate, but he doesnt beat
himself with the walk and is facing a weak San Diego Padres club that offers
strikeout upside with a 25 percent whiff rate against right-handers. The
Cincinnati Reds righty is in play for all DFS formats.Scott Kazmirs ranking may
also look oddly high, but this is another case of a favorable opponent driving
the score. On the road versus southpaws, the Arizona Diamondbacks carry a league
average weighted on base average (wOBA) along with a whopping 27 percent
strikeout rate under those conditions, the second highest mark in the league.
This feeds right into the Los Angeles Dodgers leftys impressive 9.6 K/9. In
addition, the Snakes are among the least patient squad in the league which helps
ease the risk that sometimes Kazmir struggles with control. This combination
renders the left-hander as a nice GPP option.Justin Verlander is another
candidate for those looking to take down a DFS tournament. The Detroit Tigers
host the powerful but strikeout-prone Houston Astros in Comerica Park. The venue
is a little more hitter-friendly than perceived but its still a better place to
pitch than Minute Maid Park. The veteran right-hander is having a strong July,
allowing two runs or fewer in all five starts, tossing at least seven frames in
three.Pedestrian middle relievers may have more wins than Julio Teheran, who has
managed a scant three victories for the punchless Atlanta Braves despite
pitching to an impressive 2.71 ERA. Perhaps Saturday will bring win No. 4 as the
right-hander draws the equally offensively-challenged Philadelphia Phillies.
Jeremy Hellickson is scheduled to oppose Teheran, but is allegedly on the
trading block which would benefit Teheran as the replacement would certainly be
a downgrade. Teheran is already in play for DFS. If Hellickson is scratched, the
spot is even better.Continuing the theme of high-strikeout potential, Jaime
Garcia leads the St. Louis Cardinals into South Beach for a date with the Miami
Marlins. The Fish fan at a 23 percent pace versus southpaws, adding Garcia to
the growing list of GPP candidates.Why stop now? Jameson Taillon takes the hill
in Miller Park to challenge the Milwaukee Brewers and their bloatted 26 percent
whiff rate versus righties.
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The Pittsburgh Pirates rookie right-hander has tossed six frames his last three
outings -- fanning 16 over those 18 stanzas -- so hes capable of taking
advantage. Adding intrigue to this contest is Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun,
who?are potential hug recipients, which would weaken an already soft
lineup.There are a few more hurlers in the solid tier but theyre not set up as
well for DFS action. If you have questions on anyone not featured, please post
your query in the comments or send a Tweet to @ToddZola.StreamersDespite
sporting a 2.25 ERA over his last six outings, Hellickson is owned in only 41
percent of ESPN leagues. Hes not especially dominant with 26 punchouts in those
38 frames, but hes not hurting himself with only five walks. If you can get him
out of your lineup in the event hes traded, Hellickson is in play against the
anemic Atlanta Braves.Theres some risk since the Colorado Rockies hit righties
decently even on the road, and have added a lefty in David Dahl, but if you need
a late-week win, Bartolo Colon is in play.Those waiting for the complete
turnaround from Drew Smyly appear to be facing disappointment. However, the New
York Yankees dont hit lefties very well and are incurring a big park downgrade
in Tropicana Field, so the Tampa Bay Rays?southpaw is in play for this home
affair.Facing Smyly is Nathan Eovaldi, so if you need some strikeouts, the
Yankees righty is a solid choice facing a Rays club that whiffs at a 24 percent
clip when facing a right-hander.AvoidWeve got a trio of arms registering a
projected Game Score of 45 or below that are automatic avoids in Reynaldo Lopez,
Yovani Gallardo and Martin Perez. Of course, your team situation trumps the
score, so if using one of these risks is necessary to win, do what you have to
do. Additionally, Tommy Milone against the Chicago White Sox and Hector Santiago
facing the Boston Red Sox look to be in for a long day, or an early
shower.HittingIt seems to be all or nothing with the Boston Red Sox. On paper,
Saturday sets up to be an all-in affair with southpaw Hector Santiago on the
bump in Angel Stadium. Even in a venue that suppresses homers, Santiago has
allowed 12 long balls in 51 frames. Granted, hes been throwing better lately,
but that feeds into the hit-or-miss nature of the Red Sox in general. Mookie
Betts and Dustin Pedroia will be in their usual table-setting spots, enjoying
the platoon bump along with Xander Bogaerts in the three-hole. Then it gets
tricky, as you need to choose between Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez. This looks like
a spot to go with the platoon edge in Ramirez, though Big Papi has hit lefties
well, thus, is a viable play that can even be termed contrarian.The Pittsburgh
Pirates are beginning to get rolling, and with a nice park upgrade in Miller
Park, theyre in play versus righty Chase Anderson of the Milwaukee Brewers. The
Bucs are especially solid as a contrarian stack since theyre mostly
right-handed. John Jaso and Gregory Polanco are the standard options since they
swing lefty at the top of the order. Its using Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte
and Jung Ho Kang that afford the stealth differentiation from other entries.The
Kansas City Royals are thrilled to have Lorenzo Cain back, inserting him into
the familiar three-hole where hell have the platoon advantage over Martin Perez
as the defending World Series champions visit Arlington. Alcides Escobar and
Cheslor Cuthbert are strong plays, especially in cash action. If youre looking
to stack Royals, Kendrys Morales and Salvador Perez are the choices with more
power potential.Most likely to hit a home run: Joey GalloExactly half of the
slates 30 scheduled starters sport a HR/9 of 1.4 or greater. If the balls arent
flying out of the yard on Saturday, theres something amiss. Of the bevy of
possible culprits, Ian Kennedy will take the ball in hot and humid Globe Life
Park which does no favors for his 2.1 HR/9. Lets give the nod to the kid that
swings so hard in case he hits the ball, and call on Gallo to do the honors.Most
likely to steal a base: Nori AokiDespite the extended dont worry treatment
extended to Arrieta, one thing he has never done well is control the running
game. Aoki is back on top of the Seattle Mariners lineup, and while hes only
4-for-11 on the season when attempting thievery, he has seen Arrieta enough to
take advantage.
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