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锘? As valuations have factored in the pessimistic market
sentiment, large-cap IT stocks appear to be unduly battered now. It has been a
year since the dark clouds around the Indian information technology (IT)
industry have been squaring in, and the storm in the form of a US slowdown
appears to be knocking at the doors. Last fiscal, the rupee appreciated nearly
12 per cent. Next fiscal, software companies, which have their facilities
located in software technology parks or outside special economic zones (SEZs),
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australia , the US is facing a slowdown, which many perceive may
turn into a recession. Not surprisingly, many investors have already reduced
their exposure to IT stocks, and valuations of software companies are close to
the lower-end of their historical price-earnings multiples. Although it appears
rational to expect IT budget cuts and a slowdown in Indian IT-companies' order
flows, there is a strong view from the other side of the argument. Fortunately,
the trend emerging from the guidance of global IT companies supports the more
optimistic argument that a slowdown will prompt greater outsourcing, and in
turn, higher volumes for large software companies. Examples include good results
in technology consulting by Accenture, strong international growth guidance by
IBM and Cognizant for 2008 of achieving 'at least 38 per cent' revenue growth.
All these signs, put together, hint at a lesser than estimated fundamental
deterioration of the sector. According to a Forrester Research market sizing
forecast titled ?Global IT 2008 Market Outlook? asics gel noosa tri
9 australia , the US market is likely to be the laggard in the
purchase of IT goods and services in 2008, while the Asia-Pacific will be the
pacesetter. Forrester estimates the global IT purchases to equal $ 1.7 trillion
in 2008, growing by 6 per cent, after a 12 per cent increase in 2007. Of this
spending, nearly $380 billion is likely to go toward purchases of software
products and services ? an area where Indian IT companies are strong. The growth
in budgets for software products is pegged at 8 per cent for 2008, down slightly
from 11 per cent in 2007. The decline of the dollar is factored in, in these
forecasts. Forrester expects Asia-Pacific, and the oil exporting area of Eastern
Europe, Middle East, and Africa to be the main engines of growth in IT purchases
this year. In a more recent report titled ?European IT 2008 market outlook?,
Forrester suggests that the European IT market will grow faster than its US
counterpart asics gel noosa tri
8 australia , with stronger investments in software than purchases
of computer and communications equipment. The European IT spends is likely to
grow 3.5 per cent in euro terms in 2008 ? higher than the US growth of 2.8 per
cent in dollars. Measured in dollars, this growth will be amplified further.
Now, going by the logic spelled out by economists, analysts, and company
managements alike, a slowdown in the US would translate into the need to cut
costs. This in turn, will fuel outsourcing, which will rather benefit the Indian
software players than causing a negative impact. Therefore, even though there
may .
The Wall