As might be anticipated, given my gig here at TSN, I spend lots of hours poring
over numbers, trying to forecast the NHL season and yet, for all those efforts,
there are surprises.
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its because percentages (shooting, save, on-ice shooting) are finding their way
back to more normal levels, but sometimes players get opportunities that just
werent easy to see before the season started. Leaving out injuries, because I
dont pretend to hold that psychic power, here are some of the seasons biggest
surprises for each team. I did not expect... ...C Nick Bonino to be the
third-leading scorer on the Ducks, behind Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. I
projected Teemu Selanne to be third, but he was way back and I still had
virtually every other secondary Ducks forward pegged ahead of Bonino, who had 33
points in 112 career games coming into the season. ...RW Reilly Smith to be the
Bruins leading goal-scorer, with 15, through 48 games (passed by Brad Marchand
Monday afternoon). Smith had decent underlying numbers as a rookie, but he
scored three goals in 37 games last year, so I figured that he might be an okay
third-liner for the Bruins if everything broke right. Turns out hes been a much
more valuable contributor. ...the Sabres to open the season with a pair of
18-year-olds on defence. A team that didnt have much reason to expect a winning
season (I ranked them 29th in the preseason), thought that their best course of
action would be to have 2013 first-round picks Rasmus Ristolainen and
Nikita Zadorov taking regular turns on the blueline. That experiment was
eventually abandoned, as the Sabres made organizational changes, but that
decision -- no matter how promising those defencemen could be in the future --
was a puzzler. ...D Kris Russell, who had spent his career as a protected,
third-pair defenceman, to be so solid while playing more than 23 minutes per
game for the Calgary Flames. 26-year-old Russell will be an unrestricted free
agent at seasons end, but looks like one that the Flames should keep. ...the
complete collapse of LW Jiri Tlusty. Sure, he wasnt going to keep scoring on
19.7% of his shots, like he did while scoring 23 goals in 48 games last season,
but Tlusty opened the year with Eric Staal and Alexander Semin on the top line
and hes since plummeted down the depth chart since and has six goals and 11
points in 40 games. ...this years offensive surge (45 points in 51 games) from
Blackhawks D Duncan Keith, who may be having the best year of a great career.
Could have gone with Antti Raantas solid play in goal when he was pressed into
action, but Im trying avoid the injury thing, and while I expected better from
Bryan Bickell, its not a huge surprise that he couldnt hold his spot on
Jonathan Toews wing. ...that D Andre Benoit would be playing top-four minutes on
the Colorado Avalanche blueline. A 30-year-old who had played 41 career NHL
games before he was signed as a free agent to a one-year, $900,000 contract,
Benoit has logged 20:41 per game and ranks second among Avs defencemen with 18
points in 47 games. ...this kind of breakout from Blue Jackets C Ryan Johansen.
Oh, it was always a possibility, because hes a fourth overall pick that has
shown flashes, but he struggled last year and was a healthy scratch in the AHL
playoffs, so I did not foresee his sudden emergence as a bona fide No. 1 centre.
...Stars LW Ryan Garbutt to be tied for fourth on the team in goals, with 10 in
41 games. Garbutt, 28, had five goals in 56 NHL games prior to this season, but
hes become an effective, workmanlike player who generates shots on goal at a
rate similar to some of the top goal-scoring wingers in the league. ...Red Wings
C Stephen Weiss to be such a disaster. His 2013 season was a mess, but he cut
his season short for wrist surgery, so it was easy enough to write off four
points and a minus-13 in 17 games as something that would be corrected once
Weiss was healthy. With four points in 26 games this year, Weiss has obliterated
that theory and now leaves the Red Wings in a tough spot, staring at
$20.5-million over the next four years for a once-productive player who has
eight points in 43 games since the start of last season. ...the defence and
goaltending for the Edmonton Oilers to be so terrible. Since Devan Dubnyk has
moved on, lets focus the attention on a team-wide defensive issue. The Oilers
have a shot deficit with virtually anyone on the ice (save rookie D
Martin Marincin, who has played 13 games) which, combined with subpar
goaltending, leads to another lottery pick. ...stalled progress for second-year
Panthers LW Jonathan Huberdeau, who had a promising rookie season, but has seen
his shots per game collapse from 2.33 to 1.53 in Year Two, and hes sitting with
20 points through 47 games after tallying 31 points in 48 games last season.
...Kings rookie RW Tyler Toffoli to have such difficulty sticking in a regular
role. After scoring 11 points in 22 late-season and playoff games last season,
Toffoli seemed a good fit for a Kings team that could use more production from
their forwards. For whatever reason, and it cant be entirely based on point
production, Toffoli has been returned to the AHL, where he has 10 goals and 16
points in 13 games. ...anything significant from Wild G Josh Harding. No, I did
not expect the goaltender who has been a solid career backup, but played just
five games last season because of MS, to deliver what was probably the best
goaltending performance over the first half of the season. Health remains an
issue for Harding, but his spectacular play this year (1.65 GAA, .933 SV%)
exceeds all possible expectations. ...that the Montreal Canadiens, who could
certainly use an offensive boost, would choose to keep LW Alex Galchenyuks
minutes under wraps. The sophomore winger ranks third on the Habs in 5-on-5
points-per-minute, yet he ranks eighth among Montreal forwards in ice time per
game. ...G Marek Mazanec, a 22-year-old who had played 41 Czech League games
over the past three seasons, to lead the Predators in goaltender games played. I
know Ive tried to avoid injury situations, but none of the Predators scoring
(good or bad) counts as shocking and even if Pekka Rinne was going to miss time
with injury, Carter Hutton or Magnus Hellberg would have been my picks to play
more minutes. ...that, as of the third week of January, G Martin Brodeur would
still have more games played than Cory Schneider. Its not altogether shocking,
given Brodeurs importance to the franchise, but rare is the team (especially one
on the playoff bubble) that would have the goaltender with a .905 save
percentage playing more games than the goaltender with a .924 save percentage,
especially when the goalie with the .924 save percentage had such a vastly
superior save percentage in the previous three seasons. ...LW Josh Bailey to
fall back the way he has, from 11 goals in 38 games last season to four in 46
games this year, but the bigger surprise for me is how RW Pierre-Marc Bouchard
was so quickly ejected from the lineup after a slow start that was due, in part
to his own 7.8% shooting percentage, as well as a low on-ice shooting percentage
that would have been bound to bounce back. ...Rangers rookie LW Chris Kreider to
be so productive after he stumbled as a rookie pro (23 points in 48 AHL games,
three points in 23 NHL games) last season. This year, Kreider has earned a
regular turn on a scoring line and is delivering strong underlying stats too.
...that Kyle Turris would be the highest-scoring Senators centre, even with a
relatively-healthy Jason Spezza on board. Of course, the expectation was that RW
Bobby Ryan was going to play alongside Spezza, but it has turned out that the
line of Clarke MacArthur, Turris and Ryan has really been the Sens No. 1 unit.
...G Steve Mason to have an above-average save percentage. After four subpar
years in Columbus, it was difficult to put too much stock in Masons seven games
(and .944 SV%) with the Flyers late last season. Now, Mason has been in steady
decline since the beginning of December, but hes still fared better than
expected overall. I suppose honourable mention here could go to C
Vincent Lecavaliers decline -- his points per game (0.51) is his lowest since
his rookie season, 1998-1999. ...the offensive breakthrough of Coyotes C
Martin Hanzal, who has 34 points in 45 games, one off his career-high, set as a
rookie in 2007-2008. They say it takes big forwards some time to reach their
potential, but Hanzal is scoring at a much better rate than in any of his
previous six NHL seasons. ...the season that Penguins D Matt Niskanen is having.
While it would also be fair enough to point to LW Chris Kunitz, who I didnt peg
for a point-per-game scorer, a healthy Sidney Crosby opens up the number of
reasonable possibilities. For Niskanen, he has 26 points and is a league-leading
plus-25, a great showing in a contract year. ...Sharks RW Joe Pavelski to be
second in the league with 27 goals. Pavelskis been a terrific two-way player
pretty much since coming into the league in 2006-2007, but when the Sharks
started losing bodies up front, its been Pavelski who has carried the day,
scoring 18 goals in the past 20 games. He needs five in the remaining 32 games
to set a new career high. ...24 goals in 37 games from Blues LW Alexander Steen.
Like Pavelski, a strong two-way player, Steen got off to a ridiculous start with
linemates David Backes and T. J. Oshie. It was slowed down by Steens concussion,
but hes back and his next goal will be a career best. ...Lightning G Ben Bishop
to be Vezina contender. Sure, it was reasonable enough to think that Bishop
could beat out Anders Lindback for the starting job, but what kind of
expectations can you put on a 27-yar-old that has played 45 career NHL games.
Honourable mention to C Valtteri Filppula, who has been far better than I
anticipated after a down year in Detroit last season. ...Maple Leafs C
Tyler Bozak to be closing in a point-per-game. While my projection for C
Nazem Kadris decline is within reason (hes below my points-per-game projection),
Bozak putting up 23 points in 27 games is a major leap over previous seasons.
Hes doing it with unsustainable percentages and, due to injury, its a smaller
sample size, but I readily admit that I wouldnt have forecasted this kind of
production for Bozak. ...any kind of contribution from Canucks C
Mike Santorelli. After all, he is a 28-year-old who had four points in 34 NHL
games last season and 15 points in 94 games over the previous two seasons. Of
course, that would be the guy who has 28 points in 49 gams, playing more than 18
minutes a night for Vancouver this season. ...Washingtons goaltending situation
to suddenly become such a mess, but Im going to go with surprising production
from RW Joel Ward, who ranks (distant) second on the Capitals with 13 goals. His
career-high is 17 goals and had 14 goals in 112 games through his first two
seasons with the Capitals. ...that Jets C Olli Jokinen would be a productive
player again. He had 14 points in 45 games last season and turned 35 in
December. Hes not a world-beater with 31 points in 50 games this year, but its
still unexpected. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and
followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out
TSN Fantasy on Facebook.
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baseman Carlos Pena and outfielder Brennan Boesch have signed minor league deals
with the Los Angeles Angels.
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Barack Obama saluted the Stanley Cup winning Chicago Blackhawks at the White
House on Monday -- a rare moment for a president hungry to see more victorious
teams from his hometown.DETROIT - Reggie Bush is active for the Detroit Lions
for Sundays game against Tampa Bay. The speedy running back missed the last
three games with ankle problems.Defensive tackles Nick Fairley and Caraun Reid
are inactive for Detroit, along with quarterback Kellen Moore, tackle Garrett
Reynolds, guard Rodney Austin, defensive end Larry Webster annd wide receiver
Ryan Broyles.
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the Buccaneers are wide receiver Robert Herron, running back Bobby Rainey,
linebacker Mason Foster, tackle Anthony Collins, defensive tackle Clinton
McDonald and tight ends Brandon Myers and Austin Seferian-Jenkins.___AP NFL
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