SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.
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So, in the wake of Arrogates devastating, track-record, runaway score in
Saturdays Travers Stakes, who is the best 3-year-old male in the land?It might
well be Arrogate. What he did in the Travers was amazing stuff, setting a fast
pace under pressure and running away through the stretch like he went the first
half in 50.84 seconds instead of the 46.84 he did post. And as if racking up a
13-1/2-length victory wasnt enough, Arrogate ran the fastest 1-1/4 miles in the
history of Saratoga at 1:59.36, smashing General Assemblys 37-year-old track
record.Powerful, powerful stuff. Maybe one of the three or four best
performances weve seen all year.But where did this effort come from?Its not like
Arrogate hadnt demonstrated considerable potential at the launch of his career
in Southern California. He finished third sprinting in his debut last April and
then won three straight going two turns, victories that earned him a trip to the
Travers.However, none of Arrogates prior three scores were in the same universe
as what he did on Saturday. I mean, he freaked in the most extreme sense of the
term. In fact, his Travers performance, brilliant as it was, was in such
contrast to his prior efforts that it seems only reasonable to require some
validation.Arrogate might well be the best 3-year-old in the land, and it might
not even be close. But I need to see him perform even fairly close to the way he
did Saturday before I consider his Travers effort to be something I buy into
completely.No question, the biggest disappointment in the Travers was
Exaggerator, who was a distant trailer early, made a brief run late on the far
turn, and then backed off to be eased under the wire, finishing 11th of 13.This
dismal effort by Exaggerator on a fast track, into a fast pace, makes a very
strong case that he is indeed not only pace dependent, but also dependent on a
wet track to perform at his best. After all, Exaggerators wins in the Haskell,
Preakness, and Santa Anita Derby, and his second in the Kentucky Derby (on a
track that was plenty wet despite its fast designation) were all set up by pace
and surface.But his last two dry-track starts resulted in 11th-place place
finishes in both the Travers and Belmont. And all of this begs the question of
whether its wise to award a horse who to this point has been a creation of
fantastic pace setups and wet tracks.Nyquist, on the strength of honest wins in
the Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby and a third in the Preakness that I think
was the best performance in that race, might still be the ranking 3-year-old
male. But his grasp on the division is very shaky.Which means that perhaps in no
small respect, the door is open for Arrogate. But lets see him do what he did in
the Travers again. Like in the Breeders Cup Classic.Quick Saturday Saratoga
notes* Lady Eli might have been caught late by Strike Charmer in the Ballston
Spa for the first defeat in her seven-race career, but she was a winner Saturday
in every other sense of the word.Lady Eli ran big considering she was beaten
less than a length off a 14-month layoff. She ran huge considering that layoff
was due to laminitis. And what she did Saturday was tremendous when you take
into account that shes lucky to be alive, let alone racing again, and racing
effectively.Lady Eli made a very strong wide run around the far turn in the
Ballston Spa, and even if her move was nicely set up by a fast early pace, that
move says Lady Eli is still the Lady Eli we remember and will be a force to be
reckoned with going forward.* Flintshire is so much the best in the male turf
division its silly, and I say that with all due respect to Ironicus, who was a
very good second to Flintshire in the Manhattan last June.However, as
tremendously entertaining as Flintshires victories at this Saratoga meet were,
lets not forget that he wasnt exactly beating horses who will invoke the memory
of Manila. The group who tried to box him in in last months Bowling Green wasnt
remotely good enough to pull off the gambit.There were no such machinations
Saturday in the Sword Dancer - although Flintshire got two rail passes when
barnmates Money Multiplier opened the rail for him around the far turn the final
time and rabbit Inordinate did the same turning for home - but the competition
really wasnt all that much stronger.I do not note this to denigrate Flintshire.
He is very, very good, and I am a fan. However, European horsemen will soon get
serious about sending real horses over here for the big fall grass stakes, and
the competition Flintshire will face will become stronger by many multiples. And
he might very well be good enough to meet the challenge. And that, for me,
anyway, will be more entertaining than seeing Flintshire again victimize
seriously overmatched competition.* If there was any doubt about Cavortings
status as the top older dirt female east of Beholder and Stellar Wind, it was
eliminated with her better-than-it-looked victory in the Personal Ensign.With a
pace that bordered between deliberate and slow, the Personal Ensign quickly
became a race that put a premium on tactics. And Cavorting, in her first career
start around two turns or at a distance as far as 1-1/8 miles after winning the
Ogden Phipps and Ruffian at Belmont in her last two starts, was up against it
tactically, trailing early in the solid field of five.Yet despite an unfavorable
setup, Cavorting was still able to produce a stretch rally from the outside to
get up in time, which is very much to her credit. She was decidedly better than
her half-length win margin would suggest.* Likewise, there was little question
going into the Forego that A. P. Indian, the winner of his last three starts,
including the Alfred G. Vanderbilt earlier in the meet, was the best male
sprinter in the East. There was even less doubt after the Forego as A. P. Indian
was decidedly best. That said, this edition of the Forego lured a
less-than-inspiring field, and the East Coast sprinters are not an especially
tough group, at least right now.* No matter what, Drefong was the speediest and
best horse in the Kings Bishop. But it would have been nice to see him have to
use his speed to prove his superiority. Instead, the Kings Bishop was
giftwrapped for him only a quarter of a mile in.Drefong was in front and clear
in a flash after the start of the Kings Bishop because he is, well, California
speed. But when 23.11 was posted for a first-quarter fraction, it was clear
there was no California speed, or any other speed, at work. That was walking for
Drefong, and because he is a good horse, he thoroughly capitalized on his good
fortune with a clear-cut score.Still, I suggest not penalizing the closers who
were soundly beaten by Drefong this time too severely. They had no shot with the
way the Kings Bishop was run.* Much credit to Haveyougoneaway, who made the
Ballerina her second graded stakes victory of the Saratoga meet (she won last
months Honorable Miss). But I do think several Ballerina contestants, for
whatever reason, just did not deliver representative performances.Sheer Drama
never moved a muscle, and Wavell Avenue barely did better. Carina Mia finished
third as the even-money favorite despite being a 3-year-old against older
opponents, but she really shouldnt have weakened after contesting a first
quarter of 23.39, which was slow for a seven-furlong stakes race on a fast
track, and her stretch drift was troubling.* The final times of the three big
seven-furlong stakes ranked in predictable order. A. P. Indian went in 1:20.99,
Drefong went in 1:21.25, and Haveyougoneaway went in 1:21.63. But frankly, I was
a little surprised there wasnt more of a spread between these times.
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