This story appears in ESPN The Magazines October 31 NBA Preview Issue.
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Sunglasses 2017 . Subscribe today!ITS JAN. 28, 2011. Doc Rivers
powerhouse Celtics, featuring a Big Three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray
Allen, are seven months removed from their second Finals in three years. Theyre
35 -- 10 on the season, winners of seven of their past eight, and visiting the
20 -- 24 Suns. Prediction: blowout.From the start, though, the Celtics stumble
in startling fashion. Garnett throws a pass to no one, then gets tossed for
striking Suns forward Channing Frye in the groin. Boston shoots a season-worst
34.2 percent against one of the NBAs worst defenses. The Suns roll 88-71.Rivers,
incensed, rides out most of the game from the visiting locker room after being
ejected for jawing at the officials. Watching it all unfold, he wonders, Jesus
Christ, was the whole team drinking last night? But the Celtics longtime
trainer, Ed Lacerte, has another theory: We should see the sleep doctor. This is
the game he pointed to.The sleep doctor was Dr. Charles Czeisler, the director
of the Sleep Health Institute at Brigham and Womens Hospital and of sleep
medicine at Harvard Medical School, whom Rivers had consulted before the season,
asking him to identify trouble spots on the schedule. Czeisler noted that the
Celtics would be flying into Phoenix after facing the Trail Blazers in Portland
the night before -- and Cleveland in Boston two nights before that. With so much
travel across so many time zones in just three days, your instincts will be bad,
he said. Itll be like playing drunken basketball. You will not win this
game.After the loss, Rivers realizes that Czeisler was right and that its time
to start adjusting routines. He calls his Big Three into the office: Were
changing, immediately.The players push back. They like their routines. This is
what we do! Garnett says.Replies Rivers: Well, were not doing it anymore.EVERY
SEASON, NBA teams are forced to play games that, as Rivers learned in 2011, are
all but unwinnable -- not because of the opponent but because of how the
schedule unfolds leading up to them. In many organizations, these games are
actually referred to as scheduled losses. Says Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau:
Sometimes the schedule can get you. That happens.Spurs coach Gregg Popovich
circles these problem games on the schedule and prescribes the one cure for
them: rest. The guys appreciate it, he says, and it makes them even more
committed to the program because they know youre taking care of them and theyre
not just a piece of meat that youre going to use to win and move on.Current
Celtics coach Brad Stevens, who has consulted numerous sleep experts, says he
has received similar advice. Its very point-blank -- like, this schedule is not
great for sleep. But the bottom line is the schedule hasnt changed, its not
going to change, so how do you manage it the best you can? Thats why when the
schedule comes out, for me, I go through the whole thing that day and plan the
whole year and think about it.And now so can you. To identify the NBA games in
which its not one team against another but one team against the schedule, ESPN
enlisted multiple experts, including sleep doctors who consult with NBA teams.
In partnership with ESPN Stats & Information, they ranked the seasons 488
back-to-back games on several factors, such as whether the game is home or away,
the time elapsed between tip-offs (including hours lost from flying east), how
rested the opponent is from play or travel and whether its part of a longer run
of four games in five nights, or five games in seven. The result: There are 42
games in the 2016-17 season in which the schedule creates a distinct competitive
disadvantage for one team. The seven most extreme cases are identified below.
Were calling them schedule alert games.Does it work? Cheri Mah, sleep consultant
to NBA teams and a research fellow at the UC San Francisco Human Performance
Center, helped construct the formula. Last season, using a similar formula, her
system correctly picked losers with up to 78 percent accuracy. Those predictions
were blind to the quality of the teams -- showing how strong the impact of
back-to-back games is. The reality is, if I could craft an NBA season, Mah says,
it would not have back-to-backs.TODAY, RIVERS IS keenly aware of which games are
unwinnable -- so much so that hes actually considered the once-unthinkable:
forfeiting. Rivers, now the Clippers coach, recalls that LA was scheduled in
2014 for back-to-back games, the second on the road, immediately following a
seven-game road trip. I contemplated keeping the team home, literally, Rivers
says. We knew we were walking into getting our ass kicked, and thats what
happened.What is it they say? If you have less than five hours of sleep for
three days in a row, your reactions are that of a legally drunk driver? Weve
seen that with our own eyes.Schedule alert!Do you like to prepare mentally for
your favorite NBA teams losses, even months ahead of time? Then this is for you!
With the aid of sleep scientists, weve devised a formula to identify the seasons
schedule alert games-those that are the most unwinnable because of the schedules
travel impact and resulting fatigue issues. Heres an exhaustive look at the
season.Mah Score is based on eight fatigue factors, ranges from 0 to 12, with
higher scores indicating greater disadvantage.1. 11/29: Hornets (Pistons): 8.5
Mah score Leaving Memphis, the Hornets lose an hour flying home-and less than 24
hours later cap a four games-in-five-days stretch vs. the rough-and-tumble
Pistons.2. 12/3: Lakers (Grizzlies): 8.5 A back-to-back for LA starting in
Toronto means a late trip through customs and no rest. Even tougher: This next
game is the fourth in five nights-all on the road.3. 12/6: Bulls (vs. Pistons):
9.5 Chicago, in the closest thing to certain schedule defeat, loses an hour in
the air heading to Detroit -- plus the haul toward Auburn Hills, Michigan --
after playing Portland at home, to cap a four-in-five run.4. 12/11: Warriors
(Timberwolves): 8.5 This is a genuine test for Golden State, its fourth road
game in five nights after playing in Memphis the night before. Plus: an early 6
p.m. start vs. a young team.5. 2/4: Denver (Spurs): 8.5 After facing Milwaukee
at home, Denver loses an hour heading East, only to cap a four-in-five against
the Spurs, who have a one-day recovery edge.6. 3/11: Wizards (Trail Blazers):
8.5 Capping not just a four-in-five but a five-in-seven stretch, this road game
comes against a Blazers team that will have a one-day rest advantage.7. 3/15:
Trail Blazers (Spurs): 8.5 For Portland, this marks the third road game of a
five-game trip, the fourth game in five nights, the fifth in seven ... and its
against the Spurs. Ouch.Additional reporting by ESPNs Jackie MacMullan, Tom
Haberstroh and Kevin Arnovitz
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Nashville Predators were glad their captain was still on their side. Weber had a
goal and two assists, and Roman Josi scored the shootout winner to lift the
Predators to a 4-3 win over the Flyers on Thursday night. BLACKSBURG, Va. --
Jerod Evans threw three touchdown passes and rushed for one to lift Virginia
Tech over East Carolina 54-17 on Saturday.The Hokies (3-1) scored on their final
five possessions of the first half, including all four of their second-quarter
possessions, to overwhelm East Carolina (2-2) and snap a two-game losing streak
to the Pirates.Evans completed 13 of 20 passes for a career-best 282 yards and
rushed for a career-best 97 more. He entered the game having thrown an ACC-best
10 touchdown passes and has thrown just one interception on the season.I think
hes pretty good, Virginia Tech coach Justin Fuente said of Evans. Hes been
judicious with the ball and hes going to the right place most of the time. Hes
been pretty efficient.ECU quarterback Philip Nelson had 362 yards passing and
two touchdown tosses to Jimmy Williams to pace the Pirates.We studied the film
well and they had a lot of keys when they were sliding the protection, said Ken
Ekanem, who had two of the Hokies six sacks. We had a lot of indicators and we
knew when someone was going to be left one-on-one. We look forward to one-on-one
matchups and pride ourselves on winning those. We did a good job of that
today.THE TAKEAWAYEAST CAROLINA: Coming off a 20-15 loss at South Carolina and
playing its third consecutive gamme against a Power 5 opponent, the Pirates
looked a step slow and out of sorts from the opening kick.
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possessions. The Pirates hope to regroup now that they have finished the
non-conference portion of their schedule.That was clearly the most talented
football team that we have played, ECU coach Scottie Montgomery said. And the
most physical.VIRGINIA TECH: The Hokies dominated on special teams, scoring
three touchdowns as a result of those units. Greg Stroman scored on an 87-yard
punt return, and Cam Phillips blocked a punt that led to an Evans touchdown pass
to Travon McMillian. A sack of ECU punter Worth Gregory in the fourth quarter
led to a 1-yard touchdown run by backup quarterback Brenden Motley.UP NEXTEAST
CAROLINA: The Pirates open AAC play next Saturday with a home game against UCF.
ECU blasted the Golden Knights 44-7 last season for their first win in Orlando
since 2008.VIRGINIA TECH: The Hokies are off next week before taking on North
Carolina on Oct. 8 and will be looking to avenge last years 30-27 overtime loss.
The Hokies have won nine of the 12 meetings with the Tar Heels since joining the
ACC.
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